A broad low pressure tracked east along the Aleutians last week 10/19-20, and weakened in the gulf of Alaska 10/21. Marginally high surf from this source peaked locally late Sunday 10/23. Buoy 51101 WNW of Kauai on Monday morning 10/24 shows a steady decline in the 13-16 second energy. This episode is expected to trend down late Monday into Tuesday. Leftover tiny to small surf could linger from 320-350 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday.
The circumpolar primary jet stream pattern of the north Pacific is leaning to a zonal pattern this week with short-wave troughs moving east spaced about 2-3 days apart. At the surface, the low pressure reflections are weak as they form just east of the dateline. The feature on 10/24 is gaining strength as it approaches the longitude of Hawaii. Models show the system hugging the eastern Aleutians into the gulf of Alaska 10/25, strengthening too late for much surf in Hawaii. A small episode is expected to pick up on Friday and drop on Saturday from 340-360 degrees.
In the northern hemisphere, the second low pressure in the series is due to form near the dateline Wednesday and track quickly into the gulf of Alaska. This should make a ditto surf event like this upcoming Friday, yet for Monday. However by that time, a larger episode is due. Models show a broad area of severe gales forming west of the dateline Friday as the associated low tracks east. This has the potential to a similar episode of 10/23-24, with the new one arriving 10/31 from 315-330 degrees. Hints of an increase in trade winds next week to at least moderate and potentially fresh. Windswell is expected to stay small to moderate from 60-90 degrees.